Looking Into a Crystal Ball

What does the future hold?

In this week’s Midweek Memo podcast, host Mike Maharrey polishes up his crystal ball and talks about what 2026 may have in store for gold and silver.

Along the way, he emphasizes the difficulty of economic and market forecasting and provides an example of why people should be cautious of bold predictions. However, he is willing to examine some of the macroeconomic and market dynamics that appear to be in place as we enter the new year and explain how they may impact the precious metals markets.

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Mike opens the show with a verse from the Bible — “For now, we see in a mirror, dimly…“

“That was Saint Paul. It kind of reflects – pun intended – how I feel when people ask me to make predictions like, ‘When do you think gold will crack $5,000?’ I’m certain it will in the relatively near future, but I would never try to put a date on it. There are just too many factors in play. So, my crystal ball is more opaque than it is crystal.”

Mike emphasizes that economic forecasting is hard, using a minimum wage law as an example.

“I can tell you that if your state raises the minimum wage, it will increase unemployment at the low end of the wage scale, all other things being equal. However, all other things are never equal. It’s possible that your state could implement a minimum wage, and due to other policies, employment at the low end of the wage scale actually goes up. And then, some talking head somewhere would point to the numbers and claim, ‘See, Mike, the minimum wage doesn’t cause unemployment at all!’ But it did. We know it did because we understand economics, and when you raise the price of something, demand falls. The laws of supply and demand aren’t suspended just because some politician makes a pronouncement. The proper response is the minimum wage did lower employment for lower wage earners, but other policies raised it, effectively hiding the negative effects of the minimum wage. Were there not a minimum wage, employment would have been even higher.”

Despite the difficulty, Mike says he’s willing to “polish that old ball up and offer a few thoughts about where I think precious metals are heading as we move into 2026.“

Mike notes that some people aren’t at all shy about making predictions.

“Kudlow is a prominent conservative economic commentator who hosts a show on Fox Business. He served as Director of the National Economic Council (NEC) in the first Trump administration. Kudlow famously called the 2008 financial crisis and Great Recession, and he recently used the exact same terminology on his show to describe the current economy.”

Mike highlights comments Kudlow made during a recent show, claiming that falling oil prices and the booming economy are “the greatest story never told.”

“Now, you’re probably thinking, ‘Mike, this doesn’t sound like a guy who thinks we’re running headlong into an economic crisis.’ And you’re right. He doesn’t. And he didn’t expect a financial crisis or a Great Recession in 2008 either. In fact, he used the same phrase to describe the 2008 economy, also calling it ‘the greatest story never told.'”

Mike reads from a Kudlow article published by the National Review in December 2007, where he insisted there was no looming recession and the Bush economy was booming. Mike concludes, “Maybe Kudlow should quit telling stories.“

“I’m not writing this to pick on Kudlow. He was far from alone in 2008. In fact, most mainstream pundits and prognosticators insisted everything was fine in early ‘08. This underscores a couple of problems when it comes to mainstream economic forecasting on the big networks. The first problem is that people who support the current administration will always spin data to try to convince you that the economy is booming. Remember all the talking heads claiming Biden was bringing down inflation and solving the deficit problem? The second problem is that most pundits fail to interpret current economic data within a broader macroeconomic framework.”

Mike goes on to explain some of the macroeconomic dynamics that he thinks hint at a looming crisis. However, he admits he doesn’t know when or how exactly things will play out.

“I just know that there are consequences inherent in the kind of monetary malfeasance your government and its central bank have unleased and you can’t dodge them forever.”

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So, what about precious metals? Can the bulls keep running?

Using analysis by Metals Focus, Mike takes a dive into the dynamics that will likely drive gold and silver in the coming year.

“There were multiple factors driving metals higher, including persistent inflation, uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade and foreign policy, concerns about the long-term outlook of U.S. debt, the ongoing weaponization of the dollar, shaky economic data, and a global trend toward de-dollarization.”

These dynamics are expected to persist in 2026. Metals Focus projects that we will see $5,000 gold this year.

Mike covers several factors impacting gold, including regime uncertainty, worries about economic health, central bank monetary easing, de-dollarization, central bank gold buying, and increased investor interest.

Mike notes that these same factors will also likely impact the silver market.

“While much more silver demand comes from industrial offtake compared to gold, it remains at the core a monetary metal and tends to generally track with gold over time.”

That said, industrial demand has much more impact on silver than gold, raising price volatility. That means we could see a significant correction early in the year, perhaps a dip all the way back to $50. However, Metals Focus analysts believe any correction will be short-lived with triple-digit prices likely this year.

Mike emphasizes that there is one overwhelming dynamic driving silver right now – there isn’t enough metal. The market has been in a supply deficit for the last five years, meaning silver users must source metal from existing above-ground supplies. Given that the owners of that metal aren’t eager to sell, the price has to rise to incentivize selling to meet market demand.

Mike also covers the ongoing silver squeeze and why it won’t likely abate quickly.

While on the subject of silver, Mike notes that Money Metals still has “https://www.moneymetals.com/buy/silver/junk-silver" rel=”noreferrer”>junk silver” (pre-1965 dimes, quarters, and half-dollars, which are 90 percent silver) at below spot.

Mike wraps up the show, noting that investors should also pay attention to platinum and palladium. While they are not monetary metals, they will find some price support in an inflationary environment.

Mike emphasizes that in a world where governments and central banks are constantly devaluing your money, you want to save in real money – gold and silver. He recommends calling 800-800-1865 and talking with a Money Metals precious metals specialist. He also emphasizes that if you know what you want, the best bet is to order online due to high call volume.