Déjà vu! Party Like It's 2019!

It’s déjà vu all over again.

In this episode of the Midweek Memo podcast, host Mike Maharrey explains how the setup in the financial system is very similar to what we were seeing in 2019, prior to the pandemic. And that’s not good news. Along the way, he explains the business cycle, its causes, and where we are in the current iteration of the cycle.

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Mike opens the show by explaining that déjà vu means “already seen.”

“And you know, it’s like, yeah, I’ve seen this play before. I feel like we’re right back in 2019. And by the way, that’s not a good thing. Today, I’m going to explain how the current setup in the financial system looks a lot like the year before Covid and what that might portend.”

Mike notes that gold and silver have almost recovered the losses during the recent correction.

“It’s interesting because every time the metals dip, we get the mainstream pundits telling us the ‘gold bubble has popped,’ and ‘silver has topped.’ And yet, for two years, the metals have been defying the naysayers. This time last year, I remember a lot of people saying, yeah, 2024 was great for gold and silver, but things are going to normalize. Well, if by normalize, they meant gold up over 64 percent and silver up just under 148 percent, they were spot on.”

Mike emphasizes that he’s not predicting another year for gold and silver like last year.

“I’m just saying that the dynamics driving metals higher are still in place, and that’s why every correction doesn’t spell doom for the bull market. Today, I want to get into exactly where we are in the business cycle and what that likely means, if history is any indication. Keep in mind, history doesn’t always repeat, but it does often rhyme.”

Before describing the current setup, Mike provides an overview of the Austrian business cycle.

“One cannot grasp the economic big picture without understanding how Federal Reserve monetary policy drives the boom-bust cycle. The effects of all other government policies work within the Fed’s monetary framework. Money-printing and interest rate manipulations fuel booms, and the inevitable attempt to return to ‘normalcy’ precipitates busts.

“In simplest terms, easy money blows up bubbles. Bubbles pop and set off a crisis. Rinse. Wash. Repeat.”

Mike outlines the trajectory of the business cycle since the late 1980s, noting that every time the Fed intervenes to rescue the economy, it is forced to implement even bigger interventions. And after each crisis, the new normal is ever-looser monetary policy.

“You’ll notice something about these rate movements. The Fed doesn’t get rates back to the level they were before the crash. This is why I like to use the heroin analogy. Money printing is basically monetary heroin. The Fed has addicted the economy to easy money, and it takes more and more of the drug every time to get the same effect.”

With the background established, Mike describes the current situation in the financial system, noting that the increase in REPO operations signals stress.

“Banks and other financial institutions borrowed $74.6 billion from the New York Fed’s Standing Overnight Repurchase (repo) Facility on the final day of 2025. The last time we saw this kind of a spike in repo operations was in the months before the COVID-19 pandemic, as the stock market was tanking and the economy was going into spasms after the central bank began trying to ‘normalize’ interest rates in the wake of the Great Recession.

“Repurchase operations are an important aspect of the banking system. The repo market enables banks to borrow cash for a very short term to maintain liquidity and meet daily financing needs. In a repo trade, a financial firm puts up Treasurys and other ‘high-quality’ securities as collateral for a short-term loan. The firm repurchases the bonds paying a nominal rate of interest, usually within 24 hours.”

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Mike notes that the Fed has also https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/12/18/the-fed-restarted-qe-without-saying-it-004555" rel=”noreferrer”>relaunched quantitative easing.

The mainstream claims the big uptick in repo operations isn’t a big deal. However, it looks eerily similar to the situation that was evolving in 2018 and 2019 as the central bank was trying to normalize monetary policy after the Great Recession. Mike thinks this is a big deal.

“Simply put, an economy and financial system addicted to easy money can’t function in a higher-rate environment. Especially when that monetary policy has incentivized a https://www.moneymetals.com/podcasts/2025/11/12/the-debt-black-hole-004473">Debt Black Hole. That’s why so many people are desperate for rate cuts despite persistently high inflation.”

It’s exactly what was happening in 2019. However, the cycle never played out because the pandemic gave the Fed and the government an off-ramp.

“The pandemic bailed the Fed out in 2020, allowing the central bank to slash rates to zero and take QE to unprecedented levels. This kicked the can down the road, giving the easy money-addicted economy a surge of its preferred drug, and keeping the inevitable crash at bay. … In other words, the economy never reckoned with the monetary malfeasance of the Great Recession era. Instead, the Federal Reserve and the government doubled down and added more fuel for the inevitable fire. Now, we’re starting to see the same pattern playing out once again.”

We may be about to experience the crash that was setting up in 2019.

“No matter how this plays out, we’re looking at an increasingly inflationary environment. The money supply is already growing at the fastest rate since July 2022, in the early stages of the tightening cycle, and the pace of money creation will increase as the Fed continues QE (without calling it QE). We will also likely see additional rate cuts. That means you can look forward to the purchasing power of your dollar declining even more rapidly.”

Mike says plan accordingly.

One way to do that is save in real money – gold and silver. With that in mind, Mike urges listeners to call 800-800-1865 and talk with a precious metals specialist today!