That Wasn't So Bad! Or Was it?

When is bad news good news?

When it wasn’t as bad as expected.

That was the case when the September CPI data came out last week.

It was pretty bad. But it wasn’t as bad as they expected. So, the mainstream spun it as good.

In this episode of the Midweek Memo podcast, host Mike Maharrey breaks down the inflation situation without the spin and reveals the Fed is about to crank up the money machine. He also puts the recent price movements of gold and silver into that broader context.

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Mike opens the show with a tale about a man going to the doctor.

“So, a guy has been feeling bad and goes to the doctor. After running a bunch of tests, the doc comes back in and says, ‘I’m sorry, you have cancer.’ Of course, the guy freaks out. Then the doctor says, “Just kidding. You just have high cholesterol, high blood pressure, pre-diabetes, and you could drop dead from a heart attack at any minute.’ The guy is like, ‘That’s great news!'”

Of course, it isn’t. It’s just not as bad as cancer.

“That seems to be the basic approach when it comes to inflation. As long as the CPI data ends up being better than forecast, it’s good news, even if it’s bad news.”

Before breaking down the September CPI, Mike highlights the recent sell-off in gold and silver and asks the operative question.

“Are the bulls dead?”

He notes two factors that seem to be driving the selloff.

“First is simple profit-taking. With gold scaling record after record, many investors are taking the opportunity to book big profits. As the price dips, more profit-takers jump on the bandwagon. The question becomes: when will the bargain seekers step in and stabilize the market? The second factor seems to be optimism that the U.S. and China are on the brink of a trade deal.”

Mike then outlines five factors he thinks will continue to support the precious metals markets, quoting Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen, who wrote, “The reasons for holding gold haven’t suddenly disappeared.”

But Mike cautions that solid fundamentals don’t preclude corrections or even longer periods of consolidation, noting that gold traded sideways for four months after cracking the $3,000 level in April.

Mike then pivots to the September CPI data that came out last Friday.

“The mainstream broadly characterized it as a good report.

“It wasn’t.

“But it was better than forecast, and in our world of politicized government data, that was good enough. As CNBC put it, the better-than-expected report “keeps the door wide open for another interest rate cut next week.”

“In a sane world, a 3 percent inflation print would put the brakes on monetary easing. However, when you have a giant debt black hole, the economy can’t function in even a modestly high-interest-rate environment. That means the powers that be will spin data however they must to justify rate cuts.

“They have a choice between propping up the debt-riddled, bubble economy and inflation.

“They picked inflation.”

Mike breaks down the data, pointing out that all of the metrics were far above the Fed’s stated 2 percent target.

“When you look at the CPI in graphical form, it’s clear that inflation has been bouncing in the same range since around mid-2022. But hey, the numbers this month were better than forecast, so yay!”

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“The fact of the matter is that inflation has been increasing for more than a year. And the Fed is about to crank up the inflation machine even faster.”

The Fed meeting will end on Wednesday afternoon. It is all but certain that the central bank will cut rates another quarter percent.

“But why? A lot of the people clamoring for looser monetary policy claim the economy is booming. That isn’t generally a signal for rate cuts. So, why ease when price inflation remains well above the Fed’s purported 2 percent target and is rising? In a sane world, the central bank would be holding rates higher to strangle inflation once and for all. It might even be hiking rates. But we don’t live in a sane world. We live in a world with a debt black hole. The debt-riddled bubble economy can’t function even with modestly higher interest rates. It needs its easy money drug. The Fed seems intent on supplying it to keep the party going, inflation be damned.”

Mike points out that he’s not the only one who questions monetary easing right now. Some mainstream analysts have also expressed concern. They are primarily worried that CPI remains elevated. But Mike notes some other equally worrisome trends, including an increasing money supply.

“I can’t overstate this fact: https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2025/06/30/money-supply-expansion-this-is-inflation-004158">this IS inflation.”

Meanwhile, there are signs of sagging economic growth.

“If only there was a word for high inflation and low growth — oh yeah, stagflation!”

Mike argues that no matter what the central bankers at the Fed do, they will never get this situation under control.

“The reality is that even with perfect data, central planning will still fail. No brain-trust can ever possess all the knowledge necessary to run a complex economy. They will always run aground on the rocks of unforeseen consequences. But what people lack in knowledge, they make up for in hubris. They’ll keep trying. And they’ll keep failing.”

Mike reiterates that the Fed has picked inflation.

“The Fed is walking a tightrope. It can’t fight inflation and prop up the economy with stimulus. They are picking inflation. This isn’t a surprise. It’s the fork they know. The bottom line is that no matter how you choose to parse the CPI data, inflation is already increasing, and another rate cut, coupled with an end to quantitative tightening, will accelerate that trend. And now the Fed is going to push up the throttle on inflation. This isn’t a situation you can vote away. All you can do is try to shield yourself from this relentless destruction of your purchasing power.”

Mike recommends buying gold and silver to protect your wealth from this monetary malfeasance. Call 800-800-1865 and talk to a Money Metals’ precious metals specialist today!