In a recent episode of the Money Metals Midweek Memo, host Mike Maharrey discussed how investors can easily lose focus in fast-moving markets. He compared the experience to watching his kitten hunt lizards on the pool deck. The kitten begins stalking a target but quickly becomes distracted by birds or squirrels.

Maharrey suggested that investors often behave the same way when reacting to the constant stream of news headlines, particularly during periods of geopolitical tension such as the current war with Iran.

The pace of headlines has accelerated as the conflict unfolds, and markets have responded with significant volatility. Maharrey warned that reacting emotionally to every news update can lead to poor investment decisions. The modern information environment creates constant distractions that tempt investors to respond immediately instead of stepping back and evaluating the bigger picture.

Why “Dead Investors” Often Perform Better

Maharrey referenced research from firms including Dalbar, Fidelity, and Vanguard that has shown an unusual pattern. Some of the best-performing investment accounts belong to people who either https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/03/05/why-a-dead-person-would-probably-be-a-better-investor-than-you-004744">forgot about them or have passed away. These investors did nothing and therefore avoided making emotional decisions that might damage their portfolios.

Financial psychologist Brad Klontz has argued that human behavior represents the biggest threat to portfolio performance. Investors tend to sell when they panic and buy when they become overly enthusiastic. 

Barry Ritholtz of Ritholtz Wealth Management has explained that large market swings can trigger the same fight or flight response that once helped humans survive in dangerous environments. That instinct may have helped people escape predators on the savannah, but it can cause significant damage in financial markets where impulsive decisions often produce poor outcomes.

Maharrey emphasized that investors should not completely ignore their portfolios. Adjustments are sometimes necessary. However, reacting to every short-term headline or market movement can destroy both savings and peace of mind. Trying to time markets based on the nonstop stream of news updates rarely produces good results.

Gold Prices and the Iran War

The ongoing war between the United States and Iran has contributed to significant volatility in precious metals markets. Shortly after the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran, https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/03/10/could-the-iran-war-give-a-long-term-boost-to-gold-bulls-004751">gold briefly surged above $5,400 per ounce before retreating. Since the correction earlier in the year, gold has largely traded between about $5,000 and $5,200 per ounce with frequent swings of $50 to $100 as investors react to new developments.

Research from Metals Focus indicates that geopolitical conflicts often create an initial safe haven surge in gold prices. Historically, that effect tends to fade as investor fatigue develops and attention shifts back to broader economic fundamentals. Analysts expect continued volatility driven by war headlines, but do not expect the conflict alone to push gold to new all-time highs unless the situation escalates dramatically.

Factors That Could Support Gold After the War

Metals Focus believes that several longer-term dynamics related to the conflict could support gold demand even after the immediate safe-haven surge fades. One issue involves broader changes in the United States foreign policy. The Trump administration has pursued a more interventionist approach that has already resulted in the overthrow of two regimes within two months. Analysts believe this shift increases geopolitical uncertainty and may strain relationships with traditional allies since the recent attacks were carried out with limited coordination with European partners.

Another factor involves the potential for long-term instability in the Middle East. Regime change does not necessarily produce a more stable political environment. In Iran, leadership has reportedly shifted to Mohammad Kamani, the son of the former supreme leader, who has been described by some observers as even more hardline than his predecessor. Maharrey noted that historical examples such as Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya, and Somalia demonstrate how foreign intervention often produces prolonged instability.

A third development involves the apparent decline of United States Treasury securities as a safe-haven asset. Historically, investors moved into Treasuries during times of uncertainty. During the current conflict, the yield on the 10-year Treasury has actually increased, indicating weak demand for government debt. Concerns about the rapidly growing national debt and fiscal deficits have reduced confidence in United States bonds. If Treasuries continue losing their safe-haven status, gold may increasingly fill that role.

War Spending and the Debt Problem

Maharrey also argued that the conflict may intensify underlying economic forces that were already pushing precious metals higher. The United States is dealing with what he described as a debt black hole. National debt continues to rise while household borrowing and corporate debt have also reached record levels. Increasing delinquency rates suggest that many households are already struggling to keep up with their obligations.

The war itself adds another layer of financial pressure. Estimates suggest that the conflict is costing roughly $1 billion per day. Because the federal government does not have these funds available, the spending will be financed through additional borrowing. Maharrey warned that rising debt levels typically lead to increased money creation, which reduces the purchasing power of the dollar and https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/03/07/why-gold-keeps-beating-the-dollar-and-euro-004747">strengthens the long-term case for gold and silver.

Geopolitical tensions may also accelerate the global shift toward de-dollarization. Some countries have grown wary of holding dollar-denominated assets because the United States increasingly uses financial systems as tools of foreign policy. If more nations diversify away from the dollar, demand for gold reserves could continue increasing.

Logistics Disruptions in the Global Gold Trade

The war has also disrupted the https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/03/09/iran-war-creates-disruptions-in-gold-market-004748">logistics of the global gold market. With significant portions of Middle Eastern airspace closed and many flights cancelled, shipments of bullion have become difficult. Large quantities of gold are currently stranded in Dubai, which serves as one of the world’s most important refining and export hubs. In 2024, approximately 1,392 tons of gold flowed through the United Arab Emirates.

Mining companies often send partially refined doré bars containing between 60 percent and 90 percent gold to refineries in the UAE. These refineries process the metal into bullion bars or jewelry-grade gold before exporting it to Asian markets. Because transportation routes have been disrupted, some dealers in the UAE have reportedly sold gold at discounts of about $30 per ounce to avoid storage costs and logistical complications.

This bottleneck has created supply tightness in other regions. India, the world’s second-largest gold market after China, has experienced shipment delays as bullion remains stranded in the Middle East. Some refiners have reported difficulty securing doré supplies, while new supply contracts from other regions carry logistics costs that are 60 percent to 70 percent higher.

Although the gold market is larger and less vulnerable to shortages than the silver market, prolonged disruptions could still create localized price spikes. Silver markets remain particularly sensitive because global demand has exceeded supply for five consecutive years.

Keeping the Big Picture in Mind

Maharrey concluded that investors should remain focused on long-term fundamentals rather than reacting emotionally to daily headlines. Wars may create temporary volatility in precious metals markets, but the larger drivers remain government debt, monetary policy, inflation, and declining confidence in traditional financial safe havens.

In his view, these factors continue to support the long-term case for owning physical gold and silver. While headlines about the war may dominate the news cycle, the broader economic environment still points toward ongoing currency depreciation and rising demand for assets that can preserve purchasing power.